Bitcoin Halving is just a couple of weeks away and the debate about its impact on the BTC’s price has started to gain momentum as well. Bitcoin halving is considered as a highly bullish event, given it cuts down the reward generated per block by half which brings into play the supply-demand arithmetic. Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million, and with every halving event, the supply is reduced by half which in turn makes it a scarcer asset, thus fueling the price rise.
Bitcoin blockchain was launched back in 2009, and its genesis block was mined by the pseudo-anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto himself. At the time of the launch, the block reward was fixed at 50 BTC and after every 210,000 Blocks, or approximately 4 years, the reward per block is reduced by half.
The past Bitcoin Halving events have been highly bullish where BTC’s price has risen by a factor of upto 1000X in the aftermath of halving. While high volatility played a big factor in those phenomenal price rise, which might not be the case this time around, given BTC’s volatility rates have come down significantly post the longest crypto winter of 2018, nevertheless, the cut down in supply is going to play a massive role in the current scenario.
#Bitcoin price one year before, during, and after :
— Crypto Kanoon (@cryptokanoon) April 27, 2020
How Past Halvings Have Impacted Bitcoin Price?
Bitcoin halving in the past has pumped the BTC price significantly, and that is one of the primary reason behind such bullish sentiment around the halving event. Let us take a look back at past Bitcoin halving events and how it impacted BTC price at that moment.
1st Bitcoin Halving: November 2012
The first-ever Bitcoin Halving event took place on 28th November 2012, where the Block Reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. At the time of its first halving, BTC was trading at $11. In the aftermath of the halving, the price of BTC jumped by almost 100X and reached $1100 in the next 12 months. This phenomenal rise is also attributed to high volatility rate since Bitcoin was a fairly new asset class which showed bubble-like behaviour. And because of this, the price later crashed to $220.
In the following couple of years, the price remained below $1,000 mark, but despite that, it always maintained a significantly high value from its price before the halving.
2nd Bitcoin Halving: July 2016
The second Bitcoin Halving event took place in July 2016 where the BTC reward per block was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. At the time of the second halving, BTC price was fluctuating between $600-$700 marks. However, post halving we all are aware that BTC broke into its biggest bull run till date seeing its price surge to near $20k in the following one and a half year.
The December 2017 all-time high of BTC coincided well with the theory that Bitcoin price sees a great uptick in its value in the 1-2 years after the halving event. The value surged by 33X to its price prior to halving. However, the value again crashed after peaking and 2018 also became the longest crypto winter.
3rd Bitcoin Halving: May 2020
The third and upcoming Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place within two weeks, where the BTC produced per block will be reduced from current 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. The upcoming halving events will be one of the most significant ones among all three, given bitcoin at present has garnered worldwide attention from governments, bankers and other financial institutions.
The 2018 bear market might have led to a loss of almost 80% of its market cap, but it also helped the bitcoin in shedding its bubble-like behaviour, made it more stable and volatility has gone down significantly. While bitcoin is currently trying to break past the $8k barrier, many analysts believe that one or two years down the line bitcoin could well be worth more than $200k.
Plan B, the analyst who rose to fame for his stock-to-flow charts is one on the frontline with a $200k price prediction by 2022. Plan B’s stock-to-flow charts follow the scarcity model where the more scarce an asset the greater its value. and he predicts the third halving would make bitcoin scarcer than gold.
Bitcoin started the year on a bullish note and broke past the $10k mark in the first month itself, which made the crypto community more bullish for the halving. However, COVID-19 outbreak combined with intensifying financial crisis took a toll on BTC price as well, and amid panic selling BTC price fell by a massive 50% on 12th March or as it is now infamously known as Black Thursday.
However, Bitcoin has managed to recover a significant portion of the losses by now even when there is huge uncertainty around traditional markets. For the past two weeks bitcoin has been in green giving the much-needed hope to the crypto community.
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