Today we have an important date - exactly one month since the publication of the previous analysis of the ALICE cryptocurrency. In honor of this holiday, we decided to update our scenario and set medium-term targets for price movements. Let's start with the fact that in a month buyers managed to raise the ALICE price 2 times, testing an important range of $17-$20. This was the main target of our past forecast. This success of buyers was due to maintaining control over the important liquidity zone of $11-$12. Before firing up by 100%, the ALICE price was fixed over this range for 22 days. This range also played an important role on 7 September. On this day, when Bitcoin began a sharp fall wave, the entire crypto market fell by 30-40%.
Therefore, while ALICE buyers control the $11-$12 range, the initiative belongs to them. The main question at the moment is whether buyers will be able to break the $17-$20 range with the next local attack to set a new historical high?
Given the sharp wave of the ALICE price growth from 19 August, and then the same sharp fall wave on 7 September, we assume the beginning of a protracted consolidation in the market. Consolidation limits are $11-$20. The ALICE price can stay in the consolidation may be extended until November. Such opinions are also suggested by the situation on the BTC market.
Bitcoin dominance has been declining successfully over the past few months. During this time, other cryptocurrencies show good growth waves. Though, at the moment, the probability of capital flow back into Bitcoin is quite high. This will weaken the independence and strength of altcoins, which will focus investors' attention on the main cryptocurrency.
Analyzing the 4-hour timeframe, we see a controversial situation. On the one hand, during yesterday's fall wave, the ALICE price was perfectly kept. Sellers could not push the price below $13.2, touching the imaginary middle line of consolidation. By closing a few 4-hour candles with a pin-down, sellers showed their unwillingness to keep up the downward pressure without correction upwards.
Nevertheless, the beginning of the price rebound is alarming for low activity and trading volumes. This fact suggests that buyers are waiting for another test of strength. On 17 September, buyers were able to test the upper trend line of the orange fall channel. Therefore, while the price is within this channel locally, the situation is on the side of sellers. In all likelihood, sellers will be able to update the local low and test the range of $11-$12. It is at that moment that the fate of the next medium-term price movement will be decided. However, the main scenario is the continuation of price movements in the global consolidation of $11-$20.