Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has dismissed the long-revered belief in Bitcoin’s rigid four-year price cycle, stating that the asset is entering a new paradigm driven by loose global monetary policy. In his recent Substack essay, "Long Live the King!," Hayes <a href="https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/long-live-the-king" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">argues</a> that many traders mistakenly focus solely on the Bitcoin Halving schedule while failing to account for critical macro drivers. He contends that past cycle peaks coincided primarily with <b>tightening of U.S. Dollar (USD) and Chinese Yuan (CNY) credit</b>, not just the mechanical rhythm of the halving.
<h2>Monetary Policy Over Mechanics</h2>
Hayes posits that the current market conditions are distinct enough to completely invalidate the historical pattern. He highlights several key liquidity injections that break the old cycle mold. Specifically, he pointed to the U.S. Treasury's strategic issuance of more Treasury bills and the withdrawal of approximately <b>$2.5 trillion</b> from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo program, which he views as a "backdoor liquidity injection" into global markets.

Further fueling his "endless bull run" thesis is the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts, even while inflation remains above target. Hayes is emphatic in his criticism of those who blindly adhere to the old pattern, asserting that they <b>“traders wish to apply the pattern … without understanding why it worked in the past.”</b> In his view, the quantity and cost of money in USD and yuan remain the true determinants of <a href="https://www.cryptoknowmics.com/news/bitcoins-price-shows-signs-of-recovery-amid-market-volatility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bitcoin's price</a> momentum.
<h2>New Macro Dynamics and Market Reactions</h2>
While Hayes’ outlook is overwhelmingly bullish, resting on the idea that cheaper money and greater supply will continue to fuel upside, the prediction has generated mixed reactions. The former BitMEX executive sees a major difference in the current phase, noting that a pivot away from deflation in China could remove a key counterbalance to U.S. liquidity, creating a more favorable global credit environment for Bitcoin.

However, some seasoned market observers, like veteran trader Peter Brandt, caution that a break from the four-year cycle could lead to "dramatic" and unpredictable price action. Despite the warnings, Hayes's core message is clear: the confluence of major macro trends is now far more influential than the pre-programmed halving events, suggesting an extended period of growth for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

Arthur Hayes Declares Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Over, Predicts "Endless Bull Run"

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is over, predicting an "endless bull run" due to loose macro drivers.

Arthur Hayes Declares Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Over, Predicts "Endless Bull Run"

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